Fantasy Football Busts You Need to Avoid in 2024 (2024)

You can't win your fantasy football league on draft day, but you can lose it.

There's a lot more that goes into winning a championship than just drafting. You need to set the right lineups, add the right players in-season and get some good old-fashioned luck, too. But if your draft is a disaster, it can be too much to overcome.

That makes it important to spend your draft picks wisely, especially the early-round ones. Finding value is critical, but avoiding busts is just as important.

Sometimes, busts are unavoidable. A player suffers a season-ending injury in Week 1. Or for reasons known only to the head coach and his Ouija board, a player mysteriously becomes a non-factor in an offense. (See Pitts, Kyle—although hopefully that changes this year.)

But with some busts, there are red flags that fantasy managers should have seen coming.

Each of the players listed here has an average draft position inside the top 50 overall. They're the sort of early picks whose impact will go a long way toward determining a team's chances for success in 2024.

And each one is a big ol' red flag, flapping in the summer breeze.

Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday

Average draft position data courtesy of FantasyPros.

ADP: QB1, 19th Overall

Being the first team to draft a quarterback is often a bad use of draft capital. Even if that quarterback does finish the season as the QB1, the advantage gained under center typically isn't worth the deficit it creates at running back or wide receiver.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen carries additional risk beyond that.

Of the three players who were targeted more than 80 times last year in Buffalo, two are gone—including Stefon Diggs and his 160 looks. Yes, the Bills brought in replacements such as veteran Curtis Samuel and rookie Keon Coleman, but you cannot objectively look at the Bills' passing-game weapons and think they are better than they were last season.

Add it all up, and Heath Cummings of CBS Sports sees disappointment brewing on the horizon.

"You can also expect significant regression from last year's 15 rushing touchdowns," he said. "That matters, because those scores masked the fact that Allen posted his lowest passing yards per game and passing touchdowns since 2020. Even his rushing yards per game were down about a third from the prior two years.

"Some of the blame for the passing drop-off can be attributed to Joe Brady, who took the offense over in Week 12 and focused the offense more on the run game. Allen threw two fewer passes per game with Brady calling the plays. None of this is to say that Allen is going to be bad, he's still a must-start quarterback. But you'll be disappointed if you draft him as the No. 1 QB off the board this year."

Cummings isn't alone in that assessment.

ADP: QB5, 45th Overall

This one genuinely hurts.

C.J. Stroud is an outstanding young quarterback with the brightest of futures. The Houston Texans aggressively added talent around him this offseason, bringing in proven veterans like wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon to an offense that already included the likes of wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz.

"I'm not going to say everything is perfect, but you see us kind of getting on that same page here and there," Diggs said. "Getting on the same page play after play, and that communication—that open line of communication—I feel like that's going to really separate it, seeing that we have such a small period of time. But this isn't my first rodeo, and I'm not, by any means, reinventing the wheel. This is the same football we've been playing since we were 5. And [Stroud] is special. I think everybody kind of knows that."

The issue, as Andrew Erickson pointed out at FantasyPros, is that Stroud offers next to no rushing upside. That's a big deal in fantasy.

"He was a top-12 finisher in fewer than half of his games (43%). According to FantasyPros consensus projections, Stroud is currently ranked as the QB7, mere points away from Jordan Love, Joe Burrow, Anthony Richardson, Brock Purdy and Kyler Murray. Many of those QBs are drafted after Stroud. And you'll find many site projections have players such as Prescott, Burrow, Richardson and Murray projected for more raw points in 2024 than Stroud.

"Stroud was QB9 in points per game last season, and 15th in expected points per game. To me, Stroud's second-year projection reminds me so much of the market's hype on Trevor Lawrence. I pushed back on it last year, and it worked."

Could Stroud be a top-five fantasy option? Yes. Should he be drafted with that expectation? No.

ADP: RB10, 24th Overall

As electrifying as De'Von Achane may be, the Miami Dolphins speedster is going to break more fantasy teams than make them.

It's not a matter of talent. Anyone with functioning eyes knows that Achane is one of the NFL's most dangerous players with the ball in his hands. Last year, he set a Super Bowl era record for the highest yards per carry by a running back with 100-plus carries.

However, Achane also missed a half-dozen games and finished the season with only 130 touches. And per Matt De Lima of FantasySP, a massive chunk of Achane's fantasy numbers last year came over a very short period.

"Anybody with two eyeballs loves Achane," he wrote. "The speedster lit it up to start the 2023 season. In Weeks 2 to 4, he collected 518 combined yards and seven touchdowns. The problem is that was basically his whole year.

"Achane finished with 190.7 PPR fantasy points. In that three-game span, he scored 91.8 points, which is a hair over 48% of his total. I love a big-play back as much as the next guy, but a running back needs consistency."

It's not just weekly inconsistency. Or Achane's missed time last season. Raheem Mostert is still at least the nominal lead back in Miami. The Dolphins spent a fourth-round pick this year on Tennessee's Jaylen Wright as well.

In an absolute best-case scenario, Achane is being overdrafted. The worst-case scenario is another 150-touch season and low-end RB2 production.

ADP: RB7, 19th Overall

There wasn't a bigger surprise at running back last year than Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams. Williams went from late-round afterthought or waiver add to league-winner, amassing 1,144 rushing yards, scoring 15 total touchdowns and finishing seventh in PPR points among running backs.

However, Williams has spent part of both of his NFL seasons on injured reserve. He broke his hand in last year's playoff loss to the Detroit Lions. He also missed OTAs this offseason with a foot injury.

While speaking to reporters, Rams head coach Sean McVay acknowledged that the team will have to be smart with Williams' workload this season.

"I think the thing we have to be smart (about) is once we get into the regular season, in terms of the amount of touches. We'll be smart," McVay said. "We're always intentional about what those guys' workload progressions look like but you don't get better at football without practicing.

"When I've kind of talked about that, what I'm mainly talking about is the amount of carries that he did a great job of being able to handle last year. But if you want to be able to hopefully get an opportunity to play after those 17 games, hopefully stay healthy through those 17, knowing what an instrumental part he is going to be, you want to be smart about that."

Part of "being smart" with Williams was the selection of Michigan workhorse Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 draft. At the very least, Corum will eat into Williams' touches. That means Williams will have to repeat his off-the-charts efficiency numbers to match last year's fantasy finish.

Given that his 14.1 touches per touchdown last year was better than Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers, that doesn't seem especially likely.

ADP: RB14, 46th Overall

The Green Bay Packers and fantasy managers alike both appear to have lofty expectations for running back Josh Jacobs.

The Pack thought enough of the 26-year-old to give him $12 million per season to replace Aaron Jones as their lead running back. Fantasy managers think enough of Jacobs operating as the lead back for a potentially potent Green Bay offense to draft him in low-end RB1 territory.

On some level, that's understandable. Two years ago, Jacobs led the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards and averaged almost five yards per carry. But that massive season was followed by a contract holdout and down 2023 season that has the folks at FantasyPros concerned about Jacobs' prospects in 2024.

"Well, if you had worries about Josh Jacobs following up his nearly 400-touch season in 2022 with a dud last year, your fears were validated," they said. "Jacobs was limited to 13 games played (quad strain in Week 13) and looked like someone sucked out his tackle-breaking ability with a straw when he was active.

"Jacobs wasn't the same guy who, in 2022, ranked 18th in yards per touch, 13th in yards created per touch, and second in evaded tackles. Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data).

"Jacobs could be this season's Rachaad White. A back who has an elite role while producing mediocre tackle-breaking stats en route to an RB1 season, but don't rule out MarShawn Lloyd playing a much bigger role this season than many anticipate. Jacobs is a shaky RB2."

Lloyd isn't the only one who could steal carries from Jacobs. AJ Dillon is back in Titletown and is reportedly looking great in camp.

Head coach Matt LaFleur has already stated that all three Packers backs will see work this season. That won't make it easy for Jacobs to live up to his draft-day cost.

ADP: WR7, 10th Overall

Believe it or not, I actually think the Los Angeles Rams are being underrated this season. If their young defense gels, they could potentially be a legitimate threat to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West.

Puka Nacua certainly made a name for himself last year. With Cooper Kupp sidelined for a chunk of the season, Nacua tallied more catches and receiving yards than any rookie wideout in NFL history. He was every bit the league-winner that Kyren Williams was.

That huge season is getting Nacua selected in the first round on average this season. But with a healthy Kupp back, Dylan Clemons of Fantasy Six Pack thinks drafters are setting themselves up to be disappointed.

"(Nacua) had a great season for fantasy purposes as well finishing as a top-12 wide receiver eight times," Clemons wrote. "Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he also finished outside the top 36 wide receivers five times. With what Puka did as a rookie everyone is expecting a year two bump, but I am not sure that is going to be the case.

"For Nacua to hit his ceiling last year Cooper Kupp needed to be out. Nacua averaged 22 fantasy points per game in five games without Cooper Kupp in the lineup. With Kupp in the lineup, Nacua averaged just 15.7 FPPG. 15.7 fantasy points is solid and that would have ranked as WR16. However, when drafting someone in the first round, you hope to get someone better than that."

It's well within the realm of reason that Kupp could regain his status as the Rams No. 1 wideout and outscore Nacua in 2024. If that happens, Nacua could go from league-winner to season-killer in the span of one year.

ADP: WR15, 28th Overall

There's plenty of uncertainty in the Bay Area right now. If the San Francisco 49ers grant Brandon Aiyuk's trade request, then the dynamics of this pick will markedly change.

But that trade request—which the Niners reportedly have no interest in granting—has already knocked Aiyuk's ADP below Samuel's. In the opinion of Kyle Soppe of Pro Football Network, that pendulum has swung way too far.

"My concern isn't talent," he said. "Samuel is a uniquely gifted weapon that gives this offense a dimension few have. However, his being dangerous to defenses and consistent for fantasy managers aren't the same thing. We know the value of his rushing attempts can be sporadic and there's no reason to think that changes in his age-28 season. In 2021, he averaged 1.43 points per rushing attempt, a rate that sits at 1.14 (down 20.3%) since.

"When it comes to the receiver version of his profile, there is no denying that Brock Purdy has eyes for Aiyuk over him. Despite an aDOT that is 95.8% higher than that of Samuel, Aiyuk has a higher catch rate (69.9% to 66.4%) from the 49ers starting quarterback."

Some guys are just better NFL players than fantasy football assets. And to be fair, Samuel's yards per catch rebounded from 11.3 in 2022 to 14.9 last season, which helped him finish as a top-15 fantasy option in PPR leagues. But Samuel's rushing usage hasn't been the same since Christian McCaffrey joined the team, and the addition of first-round pick Ricky Pearsall means yet another mouth to feed in the San Fran passing attack.

Frankly, Samuel's future in San Francisco is shakier than Aiyuk's. The same goes for his chances of cracking the top 15 at wide receiver again in 2024.

ADP: WR23, 41st Overall

This writer has already mentioned more than once that while Marvin Harrison Jr. is a wildly talented young wide receiver, he's being overvalued in fantasy drafts. It isn't a great idea to selecting a wideout who has yet to catch an NFL pass inside the top 10 at the position.

The same holds true for Malik Nabers of the New York Giants in 2024, albeit for a slightly different reason.

While appearing on the All Facts No Brakes podcast (via Josh Alper of Pro Football Talk), teammate Darius Slayton paid New York's first pick in the 2024 draft some high praise.

"He's looked good," Slayton said. "Honestly in my opinion he reminds me of Ja'Marr Chase, it's like a clone. Malik's about six-foot, they're about the same size. Dimensionally they're about the same, his body movements, it's actually kind of weird watching him move around. He's really talented, he's got good hands."

That Nabers is an excellent wide receiver prospect isn't in doubt. But while Chase entered the NFL catching passes from former LSU teammate Joe Burrow, Nabers will be catching passes from Daniel Jones. There's a bit of difference there.

In the interest of kindness, we'll throw out Jones' disastrous 2023 campaign that ended with a torn ACL. Two years ago, Jones was 15th in the NFL in passing yards, 22nd in passing touchdowns, 19th in air yards per attempt and 25th in passing yards per game. New York's leading receiver that year (Slayton) had 724 receiving yards.

On some level, a wide receiver is only as good as the quarterback throwing him passes. Jones just isn't an especially good one.

ADP: TE4, 48th Overall

The tight end position is as chaotic in fantasy as it has been in years. Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs remains the first tight end drafted on average, but for a good part of the summer, it was Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions, who led all tight ends in PPR points last season.

The fourth tight end off draft boards so far in 2024 is Arizona's Trey McBride, who came on strong over the second half of his second season before finishing with 81 receptions for 825 yards and three scores. Those numbers were good for seventh at the position in PPR points and ninth in PPR points per game.

The belief among some is that improved play from Kyler Murray under center will help McBride become an elite fantasy option. But there are multiple obstacles standing between fantasy managers and that breakout season this year.

For starters, the wide receiver play in Arizona should be substantially better than it was last season. It's not just the selection of Marvin Harrison fourth overall in this year's draft. The Redbirds also added a capable veteran receiver in Zay Jones. That could make it difficult for McBride to see a sizable bump in targets. Without that, where will the breakout come from?

McBride hasn't exactly stretched the field so far in his NFL career. He's averaging less than 10 yards per reception. Of his 110 career catches, only four have gone for touchdowns.

Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills and Evan Engram of the Jacksonville Jaguars are both going after McBride in drafts. Each of them could easily outscore him in PPR formats.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.